So, what does the stock market typically do after the U.S. election, according to history?

• The equity markets have a tendency to rally! This aligns with the idea that markets dislike uncertainty, and once the election is over, participants can better navigate the investment environment with more clarity.

• The charts below and here, illustrate stock market performance 12 months before and after an election, compared to non-election years and typical seasonality.

  During election years (dark blue), markets tend to rally in the months leading up to the election, stabilize, and then push higher 3-9 months afterward. 2023/2024 look quite similar to the past. 

• Since 1928, markets have tended to perform well in the four months following a Republican win, whereas after a Democratic victory, markets generally see stronger performance from the election date through the following 12 months.

• (source: Barclays, Jeff Hirsh @ The Stock Trader's Almanac & See It market). 

• Want to know more - Presidential Election Cycle Theory: Meaning and Overview.